SportsLine's model has nailed 24 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds and revealed its optimal NCAA Tournament bracket 2025

In the first game No. 16 St. Francis (PA) will square off with No. 16 Alabama State, with a trip to Kentucky to take on the top overall seed Auburn on the line. In the second game, No. 11 North Carolina — a surprising inclusion in the tournament — takes on No.

Where the selection committee stumbled a bit: selecting North Carolina over more deserving teams like West Virginia. The Tar Heels snared the final at-large spot in the field despite going 1-12 in Quadrant 1 games and only defeating one at-large-caliber NCAA tournament team.